Russian roulette with the sun: An interview with John Kappenman
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As part of our research for the guide on understanding electromagnetic pulse (EMP) threats—a great starting point for those new to the topic—I had the opportunity to interview John Kappenman, a leading expert from the think tank Metatech. I quickly came across his work because his models are referenced in multiple government reports and form the foundation of FEMA’s thinking about worst-case scenarios for large space weather events.
Kappenman's resume is impressive, featuring numerous faculty positions, awards, and high honors in engineering. He has dedicated his career to this field, which is why Metatech is trusted by the U.S. government for both classified and unclassified EMP-related work.
Our conversation was so insightful that we’re sharing a portion of the lightly edited transcript below as a companion to the main guide. There’s a lot to consider here—especially how the power industry underestimates the solar EMP problem and remains unprepared for it.
Here’s a quick summary of what Kappenman shared about the catastrophic risks we face every day as our electrical grid orbits a star we still don’t fully understand:
- The 2013 Lloyds of London report on solar storms and the grid is deeply flawed. The real consequences of a storm of that size would likely be far worse.
- Modeling the grid is one thing, but modeling the earth beneath it is much harder—and just as critical. Our ground models aren’t good enough.
- The power industry doesn’t want to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to protect against the full range of space weather threats.
- We’re not entirely sure what an EMP from a high-altitude nuclear blast would do to modern electronics, but evidence suggests widespread failures.
- We’re at least a decade away from even beginning to harden the grid with major upgrades. Until then, we remain vulnerable to disasters ranging from long-term regional blackouts to a total nationwide blackout that could take years to recover from.
**A Range of Possibilities**
TP: One of the things that stood out to me while researching EMPs was the wide range of perspectives on the impact of a Carrington-class geomagnetic storm or a nuclear EMP on the grid and technology. Some of your Metatech reports from 2010 were quite dire—over 120 million people without power after a large solar storm. But the Lloyds of London report painted a much less severe picture. What’s going on here?
JK: The power industry is using ground models that understate the problem by a factor of 2 to 8. Their models weren’t validated at all. We did extensive validation using data from the 1980s and earlier. Ground conductivity varies widely, and that directly affects how much geoelectric field and GIC flows into the grid.
**Incentives, Risks, and Regulatory Gamesmanship**
TP: Why would Lloyds not cite your work? They’re an insurer, so they should have an interest in accuracy.
JK: I don’t know why they’d be wrong—it doesn’t make sense. I think they just hired people who didn’t do a good job. Also, the power industry keeps GIC measurements secret, which allows them to underestimate the threat.
**Improving Our Models**
TP: It sounds like modeling the grid isn’t the hardest part—modeling the ground is.
JK: Yes, modeling the ground is the most difficult. We have good data on the grid itself, but the earth’s conductivity is complex and poorly understood.
**What Can and Should Be Done**
TP: How hard is it to shield facilities from EMPs?
JK: Metal shielding isn’t effective unless it’s properly welded and grounded. Even small gaps let in radiation. Faraday cages are necessary, but they’re messy to build.
**Playing the Odds**
TP: You mentioned a 1% to 3% chance per year of a major event. That’s pretty high.
JK: The sun is unpredictable. We’ve seen events like the 1921 storm, and there’s even the Charlemagne event, which may have been ten times stronger than the Carrington Event.
**Deep Problems**
TP: So it’s not just the sun—it’s also the earth and its magnetic field.
JK: Exactly. The earth acts as a giant conductor, and the coupling between the magnetosphere and the ground is complex. Understanding it requires detailed measurements and models.
We're not prepared for what could come next. And the longer we wait, the more vulnerable we become.