After nine days of 2019-nCoV quarantine, we can’t yet tell if it’s working
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With nine days now having passed since the full implementation of the Wuhan lockdown, we’ve reached the earliest possible point at which any positive impact from this drastic measure might begin to show in case numbers. However, even with this time lag, the data still doesn’t reveal clear signs of improvement.
The delay between the introduction of containment measures and their reflection in case numbers is typically around the virus’s incubation period—currently estimated between 4 and 10 days. As we approach the end of that window, we’re still not seeing definitive evidence that the quarantine has significantly slowed the spread of the virus.
Our analysis shows that while health authorities are still uncovering more existing cases (i.e., the ascertainment rate is still rising), it's too early to determine whether the lockdown is actually curbing new infections. This distinction is crucial: a rise in reported cases could be due to better detection rather than an actual increase in infections.
We've created two visualizations using data from the Johns Hopkins University dashboard, tracking confirmed cases from January 22 onward. These plots break down trends across Hubei, other Chinese provinces, and international regions. The first plot uses a logarithmic scale to illustrate growth patterns, while the second shows daily growth rates.
On the log scale, the curve for China appears to be flattening slightly, suggesting a potential slowdown. But this could also reflect a slowing in the rate of case detection rather than a real reduction in transmission. Experts agree that ascertainment is still increasing, though perhaps at a slower pace.
The second plot reveals that the daily growth rate of confirmed cases has dropped from over 40% early on to around 20% today. This decline may signal progress, but it’s still unclear if it reflects actual changes in the epidemic or just shifts in how cases are being identified.
In the absence of clear indicators, there are three plausible explanations: the epidemic has stopped, the virus is spreading unchecked but detection is improving, or something in between. We simply don’t have enough data yet to choose between them.
Outside of China, the situation remains uncertain. While only a few imported cases have been reported so far, it’s too soon to tell whether the virus will take hold in other regions or if travel restrictions have effectively limited its spread.
At this critical moment, the data isn’t offering clarity—only a mix of hope and uncertainty. For now, the true effectiveness of the lockdown remains hidden behind the noise of ongoing case discovery.
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