Russian roulette with the sun: An interview with John Kappenman
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As part of our in-depth research for the guide on understanding electromagnetic pulse (EMP) threats—perfect for those just starting to explore this topic—I had the opportunity to speak with John Kappenman, a leading expert from the think tank Metatech. I quickly came across his work because his models are referenced in several government reports and have shaped FEMA’s approach to worst-case scenarios involving large space weather events.
Kappenman has an impressive background, including multiple faculty roles, awards, and high honors in engineering. He has dedicated his career to studying these threats, which is one reason why Metatech is trusted by the U.S. government for both classified and unclassified EMP-related work.
Our conversation was so insightful that we’ve decided to share a lightly edited portion of the transcript below, as a companion to the main guide. There's a lot to consider here—especially how the power industry underestimates the solar EMP problem and remains unprepared for it.
Here's a quick summary of what Kappenman shared about the risks we face every day due to our reliance on an electrical grid that orbits a star we still don’t fully understand:
- The 2013 Lloyds of London report on solar storms and the grid is deeply flawed. The real impact of a storm like the one modeled could be far worse.
- Modeling the grid is one thing, but modeling the earth beneath it is far more complex and just as important. Our current ground models aren't good enough.
- The power industry doesn’t want to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to protect against the full range of space weather threats.
- We’re not sure exactly what a nuclear EMP would do to modern electronics, but evidence suggests widespread failures.
- We’re at least a decade away from even starting to harden the grid. Until then, we remain vulnerable to major blackouts that could last weeks, months, or even years.
**A Range of Possibilities**
TP: One of the things I've noticed while investigating EMPs is the wide range of perspectives on the impact of a Carrington-class geomagnetic storm or a nuclear EMP—both very different—on the grid and technology.
Some of your Metatech reports from 2010 were quite dire, estimating over 120 million people without power after a large solar storm. But the Lloyds of London report only shows a few densely populated counties offline in the Northeast. Can you explain this discrepancy?
JK: The power industry uses ground models that understate the threat by a factor of 2 to 8. Their models weren’t validated, while we did extensive validation using GIC data from the 80s and earlier. Ground conductivity varies greatly, and this affects how much geoelectric field and GIC flow into the grid.
**Incentives, Risks, and Regulatory Gamesmanship**
TP: I understand the power industry’s incentives to downplay this, but what about insurers like Lloyds? Why wouldn’t they want accurate models?
JK: I don’t know why they’d want to be wrong. They hired people who didn’t do a good job. The only way to get models right is to validate them with real data. Unfortunately, the power industry keeps GIC measurements secret, allowing them to understate the risk.
**Improving Our Models**
TP: It sounds like modeling the grid isn’t the challenge—it’s modeling the ground.
JK: Yes, modeling the ground is the hardest part. We have good data on the grid itself, but the solid earth physics is understudied. Most research stops at the ionosphere, ignoring the complexity of the ground.
**What Can and Should Be Done**
TP: How difficult is it to shield facilities from EMPs?
JK: Shielding with metal is messy. Painted seams let in E1 fields. You need a Faraday cage with sealed, conductive floors and tortuous paths for access. It’s doable, but the industry resists action.
**Playing the Odds**
TP: So you see a 1% to 3% chance of a major event each year?
JK: Yes. We’ve seen “one-in-100-year†events happen within a month. We don’t understand the sun well enough, and our grid wasn’t built to handle these threats.
**Deep Problems**
TP: It seems like the issue involves the sun, Earth’s magnetic field, and the ground itself.
JK: Exactly. The magnetic field interacts with the ground in complex ways, and the earth acts like a giant conductor. Understanding this requires detailed geophysical data and proper modeling. Without it, we're exposed to serious risks.