How we know the future of COVID-19 is a roller coaster of lockdowns and spikes

1. I stay tuned in to what top infectious disease experts are saying,
2. And I make a point to go outside, observe, and get a real-world sense of what’s happening.

For the first strategy, one of my go-to sources is Michael Osterholm’s CIDRAP podcast from the University of Minnesota. He's been spot-on since the beginning, and his latest episode was no different. One key takeaway? The recent spike in cases across Texas and other states is likely just the first wave of many more to come. Cases will rise, then drop as we take action, only to rise again when we let our guard down. This cycle could continue until we achieve herd immunity or a vaccine becomes widely available.

I agree with Osterholm, and I know it for sure because I went out and saw it firsthand.

Understanding the Delay

To really grasp how current data reflects past behavior, you need to understand the delays built into the system. These lags mean that any chart or graph you look at is already showing what happened a week or more ago. Here are some of the key delays:

• Death reporting can be delayed by 1–2 weeks.
• Test results may take 3–5 days, sometimes longer—like my dad in Louisiana who waited almost two weeks.
• Official test counts often lag by a day or two, especially over weekends.
• There's a delay between infection and symptom onset (usually 5–6 days).
• Another few days before symptoms lead to hospitalization.
• And finally, a 3–4 week gap between hospital admission and death.

These delays stack up, so when you look at case numbers, you're seeing a snapshot of the past. That’s why a surge today might not feel surprising if you remember what people were doing two weeks ago—like eating out, shopping without masks, and socializing freely.

Today, I Saw the Future

It’s not just about looking back—it’s also about using the present to predict the future. If you step outside and pay attention, you can get a good sense of where things are heading in the coming weeks.

Last week, I did a quick trip to Tractor Supply, and I was surprised to see almost everyone wearing masks. That’s unusual for a place like that, where mask use hasn’t always been common. Then I stopped by Hobby Lobby and saw the same trend. Even in places that aren’t typically mask-friendly, people are starting to change their habits.

I've also noticed a shift in online communities and local interactions. Anti-mask posts are less frequent, and even my church in Austin recently switched back to online services. These changes suggest that people are taking the situation more seriously—and that could mean a slowdown in case growth soon.

As Osterholm explained, we’re likely to see this pattern repeat: spikes, interventions, relaxation, and then another spike. Until we get a vaccine or reach herd immunity, this cycle could continue across the country.

While it’s possible this time could be different, I’m not holding my breath. Our society is deeply rooted in openness and indoor interaction, and those forces are hard to resist. Fear might keep things under control for a while, but once cases drop, people will return to their old routines—and the cycle will start all over again.

What This Means for Prepping

Given this ongoing back-and-forth, the best strategy is to prepare during the low points. When cases are down and people are out and about, stock up on essentials, do repairs, and take care of needed tasks while things are still open.

Then, when restrictions return, focus on staying home and conserving resources. Use that time to save money and plan for the next window of opportunity. Repeat this cycle until the virus either runs its course or a vaccine becomes available.

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