Think it’s time to sacrifice lives to reopen the economy? You’re wrong about COVID-19’s fatality rate

There’s a growing push to reopen the economy, with many arguing that the economic damage from lockdowns is worse than the virus's sub-1% fatality rate. This argument has been championed by figures like investor Michael J. Burry, who gained fame for predicting the 2008 housing crisis in *The Big Short*. His view is that sacrificing some lives—particularly of the elderly and vulnerable—is a small price to pay for economic recovery. But this line of thinking is deeply flawed. It relies on an overly optimistic and misleading understanding of the case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19. The real numbers tell a different story—one that highlights the extreme risks of premature reopening. First, the CFR isn’t fixed. It varies widely depending on the population and healthcare system. Countries with older populations or weaker medical infrastructures tend to see higher fatality rates. Even in places with strong systems, the virus can still be deadly. South Korea, with one of the best testing programs, has a CFR of around 1.9%, while Germany also reports about 1.9%. The Diamond Princess cruise ship, where nearly everyone was tested and treated, had a CFR of 1.7%. These numbers are far above the commonly cited 1% threshold. In fact, no country has seen a CFR below 1% once all cases have been accounted for. And the situation is even worse in places where hospitals are overwhelmed. Italy, Spain, and New York City have CFRs over 10%, while the UK and France hover around 10% as well. These numbers are likely inflated, but they reflect a grim reality: when healthcare systems break down, so does survival. Another critical point is that the death toll isn’t just from direct COVID-19 fatalities. When hospitals are overwhelmed, people with other serious conditions—heart attacks, strokes, cancer—also face higher risks. In Hubei, China, excess mortality was 15 times the official death count. Similar spikes were seen in Italy and New York, showing that the broader impact of the pandemic is far greater than just the virus itself. Even some experts are underestimating the true danger. A recent White House briefing by Dr. Birx used a 1% CFR to predict 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. if the virus were allowed to spread unchecked. But this assumes a scenario where the CFR remains low, which is unlikely in a worst-case outbreak. Using data from well-managed outbreaks is misleading—it ignores the reality of what happens when systems collapse. Reopening too soon could lead to catastrophic consequences. If the virus spreads rapidly, we risk not only massive loss of life but also the breakdown of essential services. Meatpacking plants are already closing, threatening food supply chains. Would workers show up at grocery stores or power plants if fear and illness become widespread? What if the economy collapses due to both disease and social unrest? On the flip side, staying closed too long also brings its own dangers. Unemployment, hunger, and economic instability can erode social cohesion and lead to violence. The challenge is finding a balanced approach—neither fully reopening nor keeping everything shut. We must find a middle path: a strategy that protects lives while gradually restoring economic stability. There are plans in development, and more will follow. The key is to act carefully, based on accurate data—not on outdated assumptions or risky optimism.

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