The paper price of the scale paper mill is up 800 yuan / ton

Zhuo created paper

Lead: In 2016-17, due to environmental protection, supply and demand, waste paper, etc., the price of paper soared 2,360 yuan / ton; in 2018, the highest price of cardboard paper reached 5,660 yuan / ton, the maximum scale of paper mills increased by 800 yuan / ton; In 2019, the paper price is hard to rise and fall, but it is still running at a high level. The average price of cardboard paper is maintained at 4200--4800 yuan/ton.

Environmental protection, supply and demand, waste paper, etc., paper prices soared 2,360 yuan / ton in 2016-17

2016-2017 cardboard paper market review:

In the first three quarters of 2016, the price of paper was in a narrow range. The price of paper rose sharply in the fourth quarter, with a total increase of 1,357 yuan / ton, of which the largest increase in December, the increase was 567 yuan / ton, an increase of 14.58%.

In the first quarter of 2017, paper prices were stable. The price of papers continued to rise from April to October, with a total increase of 2,360 yuan / ton, of which paper prices rose the most in September, with an increase of 1,110 yuan / ton, an increase of 22.23%.

Affected by the advancement of orders, paper prices fell sharply in the fourth quarter of 2017, with a total decline of 1,103 yuan / ton, a decrease of 18.07%.

Factors affecting large fluctuations in paper prices:

The reason for the increase in paper prices in 2016-2017 is that environmental protection supervision has been continuously strengthened, and the operating rate of the industry has declined. In addition, the new capacity of the industry has decreased compared with previous years, and the relationship between supply and demand has improved.

In addition, the introduction of the waste paper policy has stimulated the increase in speculation in the industry, so the paper price fluctuated greatly.

The highest price of 2018 cardboard is up to 5,660 yuan / ton, and the scale of paper mill is up by 800 yuan / ton.

2018 cardboard paper market review:

In the first half of 2018, the average price of cardboard paper showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The highest point was 5660 yuan/ton in the second week of May, and the lowest point was 4750 yuan/ton in the second week of January. The price has increased by 850 yuan / ton.

The price of cardboard paper fell by 100-400 yuan/ton in January. However, with the decline in the supply and maintenance of the paper enterprises during the Spring Festival, and the downstream stockings, the price of papers showed signs of rising. After the holiday, the price rises and the price increase is 400-500 yuan/ton.

However, the market trading in the middle of March to the end of April has cooled down. In early May, the General Administration of Customs strengthened the supervision of US waste and accelerated the increase in the price of cardboard paper. The average price of paper in the middle and early days rose by 850 yuan/ton, an increase of 19.68%.

However, after all, it is in the off-season of downstream demand, and the downward pressure on paper prices will increase in the latter half of the year.

In June, the corrugated paper market was affected by factors such as frequent fluctuations in raw material prices and shrinking export orders.

In the second half of 2018, the corrugated and boxboard market as a whole showed a downward trend. From November to December, the demand season peaked, and the price of paper rose slightly by 50-150 yuan/ton.

In the second half of the year, the highest average price of national cardboard paper appeared in the first week of June: 5,640 yuan / ton, the lowest point appeared in the second week of November was 4,393 yuan / ton.

Taking domestic paper mills as an example, the biggest drop in a single month occurred in October, and the price of cardboard paper was lowered by 450-800 yuan/ton during the month.

In the second half of the year, the main reason for the decline in paper prices was the weakening of demand in the second half of the year. The second half of the year was the peak demand for traditional packaging paper, but this year due to the decrease in export orders, the traditional Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day, Double Eleven and other traditional peak seasons. The paper enterprises are not ideally shipped, and the demand is negative. The paperboard paper is transformed into the buyer's market, and the paper price is mainly slipped.

Second is the decline in the price of raw waste paper. According to the average price of waste paper monitored by Zhuo Chuang Information, the highest average price of waste paper in the second half of the year was 3,090 yuan / ton at the beginning of June, and the lowest average price was 1955 yuan / ton in November, a total reduction of 1,135 yuan / ton, The decline in the price of waste paper directly negatively affected the container paper market. Downstream packaging and printing companies used this as a chip to win low prices for paper mills to reduce costs, resulting in a downward trend in the second half of the container paper market.

In 2019, the price of paper is hard to rise, but it is still running at a high level.

Outlook and forecast for 2019:

In 2019, due to the decrease in export orders and the shrinking domestic demand, it is difficult for paper prices to rise and fall sharply next year.

However, due to the strict waste paper policy, the supply of raw waste paper is in a tense situation. Under the pressure of cost, the paper price may still be high. The average price of cardboard paper is maintained at 4200--4800 yuan / ton.

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