How we know the future of COVID-19 is a roller coaster of lockdowns and spikes

1. I pay close attention to what top infectious disease experts are saying,
2. And I take regular walks outside to observe what’s actually happening on the ground.

For the first part—listening to the experts—I rely heavily on Michael Osterholm’s CIDRAP podcast. He’s been one of the most consistent and accurate voices since the start of this crisis, and his latest episode was no different. One key point he made really stuck with me: the recent surge in cases across Texas and other states is likely just the first wave of many more to come.

He explained that we’ll see case numbers rise, then drop as people follow public health guidelines, only to spike again when those measures are relaxed. This cycle will continue until either herd immunity is reached or a vaccine becomes widely available.

I don’t just take his word for it—I go out and check for myself. And what I’m seeing now gives me a strong sense of what’s coming next.

Looking at the Past

To understand how observing the present can predict the future, you need to recognize the delays in how we track the virus. For example:

• Death reports often lag by 1–2 weeks,
• Test results can be delayed by 3–5 days,
• Official data may not update for a day or two, especially over weekends,
• There’s a 5–6 day incubation period before symptoms appear,
• Another few days before hospitalization occurs,
• And up to 3–4 weeks between hospital admission and death.

All these delays mean that any chart or graph we look at today is showing us events from a week or more ago. That’s why the current spike in Texas isn’t surprising—it reflects behaviors from about two weeks back, like crowded restaurants and unmasked gatherings.

Today, I Saw the Future

But here’s the good news: the same lag effect works in reverse. If I go out and see changes in behavior now, I can expect to see them reflected in the data in a few weeks.

On my last trip to the store, I noticed something unusual—almost everyone was wearing a mask. Even at Tractor Supply, a place I wouldn’t normally expect to see much mask use, people were covered up. It was a small but telling sign that things might be turning around.

I also saw more masks at Hobby Lobby and noticed a shift in online conversations—fewer anti-mask posts, more discussions about safety. My local church even went back to online services after requiring masks the week before.

If these changes are widespread, we could see a slowdown in new cases within the next few weeks. But I know it won’t last forever. As soon as numbers drop, people will start going out again, and the cycle will repeat.

This is exactly what Osterholm warned about: spikes, crackdowns, complacency, and then another spike. We’re in for a long ride unless we get a vaccine or the virus runs its course.

So what does this mean for us? It means we need to prepare for the ups and downs. When things are calm, stock up on essentials, get your repairs done, and plan ahead. When restrictions return, stay home, conserve resources, and wait for the next window of opportunity.

This cycle could go on for months, maybe even years. But if we stay informed, stay alert, and stay ready, we can weather it better than we might think.

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